Drivers across the United Kingdom and beyond are being warned to brace for significantly higher petrol prices in the coming weeks, as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude rose as much as 13% on Monday to hit $82 a barrel, a 14-month high, before settling around $77. Fuel analysts say prices at the forecourt could climb considerably higher if oil remains elevated or continues to rise.
Petrol prices had already been nudging higher in recent weeks, with the average cost rising by about a penny per litre in February. Analysts estimated that a further penny-per-litre increase was already likely in the short term. However, the dramatic events in the Middle East have changed the calculus significantly. If oil stabilizes at $80 a barrel, average petrol prices could reach 136p per litre. At $90, the figure rises to around 140p, and at $100 a barrel, drivers could be looking at petrol approaching 150p per litre.
The sharp rise in oil prices reflects deep concerns about the supply outlook. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, is facing effective closure following military escalation. Iran reportedly warned tankers against entering the strait after US and Israeli strikes, and two vessels have already been attacked. Tankers are now piling up on either side, unable or unwilling to risk the passage.
OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase in production of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but analysts pointed out that much of this additional supply is produced in the Middle East and faces the same shipping bottlenecks as existing exports. With Iran itself being one of the cartel’s largest producers and its own exports disrupted, the effective supply shock to the market is significant.
Energy analysts described the situation as a dual supply shock — one that simultaneously halts current exports and renders OPEC+ spare capacity inaccessible while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Unless the waterway is reopened quickly, they warned, oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel. For ordinary motorists already stretched by the cost of living, such an outcome would deliver a painful additional financial blow.